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Brazilians began casting ballots on Sunday in a presidential run-off that will determine whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins a fourth non-consecutive term or is replaced by Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing senator and son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, arrived at a polling station in Rio de Janeiro early on Sunday morning and told reporters that “the time has come for real change.” He enters the second round as the statistical frontrunner: no candidate who trailed after Brazil’s first round has ever overturned the deficit to win the run-off, and Bolsonaro came first in the 4 October vote — a result US President Donald Trump described as a “very big” victory.
The 80-year-old Lula, who has governed Brazil since 2023, spent the eve of polling day on Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach addressing a large rally. He framed the contest in terms of national sovereignty, telling the crowd that voters would choose between a candidate who “kissed the Brazilian flag” and one who “kissed the American flag” — an implicit reference to Bolsonaro’s alignment with Washington. Lula’s administration has accused the United States of interfering in the election, an allegation Washington has called “baseless.”
Bolsonaro’s campaign promises and his father’s shadow
Flávio Bolsonaro has built his campaign around a tough crackdown on organised crime, tax cuts and reductions in public spending. He has also pledged to secure the release of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election and is currently held under house arrest due to ill health. Bolsonaro is expected to watch Sunday’s results from Brasília, where his father is also under house arrest.
On the eve of polling, Bolsonaro campaigned in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais — a state considered a must-win for any presidential candidate since the 1980s. “There are only a few hours left before we shape the future of our nation for the next 30 or 40 years,” he told supporters in a social media video.
In Barra de Tijuca, Rio de Janeiro, where Jair Bolsonaro has a home, supporters gathered dressed in Brazil’s national colours. One told BBC News that “Brazil needs change, and Flávio is the person that represents that today, after so many years of the Left destroying the economy and the country.” Another cited his promise to “end violence in Brazil, end terrorism, narco-trafficking, and to reduce interest rates.”
Lula’s push to close the gap
Since the first round, in which roughly 33 million eligible Brazilians did not vote, Lula’s supporters have organised large rallies aimed at boosting turnout. A supporter named Roberta told BBC News: “This movement is to show we have strength. We’ve woken up, we’re coming to the street to make a difference and turn the vote around.”
Lula and his Workers’ Party have cast the election as a “battle for democracy,” arguing that Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction for coup-plotting demonstrates that “Bolsonarismo” poses a structural threat to Brazil’s democratic institutions. The party has also sought to remind voters of its record in office while acknowledging the financial scandals that dogged it for years — scandals Flávio Bolsonaro has repeatedly invoked on the campaign trail.
On the foreign-policy dimension, Bolsonaro has argued that co-operating with Washington to combat powerful criminal gangs — which control significant territory in parts of Brazil — would restore state sovereignty in those areas. Lula, by contrast, has insisted that Brazil “does not fit into anyone’s backyard,” a pointed reference to what Trump has called the “Donroe Doctrine,” his administration’s assertion of US dominance across the Western hemisphere.
Lula plans to follow the results from São Paulo on Sunday evening.