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The International Monetary Fund has revised upward its economic growth forecasts for Uzbekistan while simultaneously projecting a significantly wider current account deficit, according to the October 2026 edition of the Fund’s World Economic Outlook, published on 12 October.
The IMF now expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.8% in 2026, up from its earlier forecast of 6.8%, and by 6.5% in 2027, compared with a previous estimate of 6.0%. If the revised 2026 projection holds, the country’s economy will have expanded faster this year than in 2025, when growth came in at 7.7%. The October report does not specify the reasons behind the upward revision for Uzbekistan specifically.
The Fund’s assessment aligns broadly with domestic data. Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee reported that the economy grew by 8.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, with nominal GDP reaching 1,072.7 trillion soums over that period.
The World Bank has moved in the same direction, raising its 2026 growth forecast for Uzbekistan from 6.4% to 7.9% and its 2027 forecast from 6.7% to 7.5%. The bank attributed the stronger outlook to rising wages and employment, remittances and investment activity.
During its June consultations, the IMF had pointed to strong domestic demand, investment activity, remittances, favorable gold prices and continued structural reforms as the principal drivers of Uzbekistan’s economic resilience.
Inflation revised higher, but still on a downward path
The IMF’s October report also revised its inflation outlook upward compared with June projections. Average annual inflation is now expected to ease from 8.8% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027. In June, the Fund had forecast 6.8% for 2026 and 5.0% for 2027. The figures refer to average annual inflation rather than the year-end rate.
On employment, the IMF projects unemployment to fall from an estimated 4.8% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027.
Current account deficit a notable concern
The more striking revision runs in the opposite direction. The IMF now projects Uzbekistan’s current account deficit to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, against an estimated 3.9% in 2025. In June, the Fund had expected the deficit to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2026 before widening slightly to 3.6% in 2027. The October figures represent a substantial deterioration in that outlook.
A current account deficit arises when a country’s total payments abroad for goods, services, primary income and secondary income exceed its receipts from the rest of the world. A widening deficit alongside strong growth typically reflects robust import demand driven by investment and consumption — consistent with the drivers the IMF has previously cited for Uzbekistan — but it also signals greater reliance on external financing.