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Tehran is signalling that any renewed military confrontation with the United States and Israel would be more protracted and more damaging to both sides than the conflict that began on 28 February, even as Iran’s own cities lack shelters and early-warning systems to protect civilians.
Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a former senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, told Al Jazeera that Iran’s armed forces have recovered and in some respects improved since the strikes earlier this year. “In terms of offence, our target database has significantly expanded, the range, accuracy and warheads of our missiles have improved and our drone capabilities have increased,” he said. He added that new enemy assets were being identified and operations in additional geographical areas were being planned.
Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said commanders would rely on asymmetric warfare tactics to offset the technological superiority of US military equipment, and that “some weaponry was renovated and new equipment was added along with new tactics” during the ceasefire period that followed a June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. He said previously undisclosed capabilities and targets would be revealed and used if Iran is attacked again.
IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi described the corps as “100 percent ready” to confront another attack, citing “maximum deterrence” as a near-term goal. Commanders from Iran’s General Staff of Armed Forces, the IRGC and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army are reported to have recently met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss the response to any new strikes, which they said would be immediate and could extend beyond the West Asia region.
Drones, missiles and sanctions evasion
State television last month broadcast footage of an underground drone production line. Authorities also showcased an upgraded version of the Arash attack drone, claiming its warhead had doubled to 100 kilograms with improved guidance systems. Kanani Moghaddam pointed to the targeting of a US-built F-35 and other warplanes and drones as successes that could be replicated and expanded.
A Reuters investigation published last week found that numerous military agencies linked to Iran’s defence establishment had evaded sanctions and channelled billions of dollars into military imports to replenish the IRGC. The imports, between January 2025 and June this year, came from China, Russia and Germany and included rocket propellants, explosives, detonators, titanium and heavy-duty trucks that could serve as missile launchers.
At sea, Kanani Moghaddam said Iran had demonstrated the ability to target supertankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz without authorisation, and that attacks on US Navy vessels in September had prompted American ships to stop entering the waterway. The US, however, has maintained a naval blockade on southern Iranian ports.
Exposed civilians, intelligence failures
Despite the military posturing, Iran’s civilian population faces severe vulnerabilities. Tehran and other cities lack public shelters or early-warning systems, and authorities have reported no progress on previously promised civil-defence measures. Iran’s electricity grid, oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel plants, and transport infrastructure all remain potential targets if hostilities resume, compounding an existing economic crisis.
The question of accountability for intelligence failures has surfaced publicly. State-linked analyst Hamzeh Rahim Safavi, son of former IRGC commander-in-chief Yahya Rahim Safavi, said during a televised debate on Saturday: “We have been hit and hit hard. The main cause is intelligence weakness, but no one talks about it or is held accountable.” He argued that calls by hardliners to acquire a nuclear weapon would not repair those weaknesses.
The new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early March, has not been seen or heard from publicly, ostensibly for security reasons, a situation that has tightened domestic security controls and prompted concern within parts of the establishment.
Former IRGC division commander and current parliamentary national-security commission member Esmaeil Kowsari offered a different assessment, telling local media last week that despite the assassinations of the supreme leader and other senior figures, “the enemies did not reach their main goals” of overthrowing the Islamic Republic or fragmenting Iran. He dismissed American claims of victory as psychological operations timed to the US midterm elections.
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the war with Iran would end “very soon one way or the other,” warning Tehran to agree a deal or face what he called “the hammer.” There have been increasing signs that hostilities could restart after the midterm vote.