Uzbekistan Now Has the Lowest Hunger Risk in Central Asia, but Tajikistan Lags Behind

Uzbekistan has recorded the most dramatic reduction in hunger of any country in Central Asia over the past quarter century, according to the Global Hunger Index 2024, which places it at the lowest risk level in the region. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan also sit in the low-risk category, leaving Tajikistan as the only Central Asian state where hunger is still rated a cause for concern.

In 2000, Uzbekistan’s hunger threat was classified as “serious” by GHI metrics. The 2024 edition marks a full reclassification to low risk — the most favourable band in the index, which draws on undernourishment rates, child stunting and wasting, and under-five mortality to produce its rankings.

Tajikistan’s trajectory has also improved over the same period, moving from the “alarming” category to “moderate,” but the country’s figures remain stark. The 2024 survey found that almost 9 percent of Tajik citizens are undernourished. Nearly one in five Tajik children under the age of five are stunted as a result of malnourishment, and 3 percent of children die before their fifth birthday — indicators that set Tajikistan apart from its neighbours and from the three South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, all of which were also rated low risk.

Progress stalls after 2016

The GHI report credits improvements in agricultural production and productivity, economic growth, and broader gains in food availability and access for the region’s advances between 2000 and 2016. However, it notes that progress has “largely come to a standstill since 2016,” a plateau that coincides with a series of compounding pressures.

Global warming, weather-related natural disasters and the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war have all pushed up the costs of food, energy and agricultural inputs across the region. The report adds a structural warning: despite agriculture’s economic significance to Central Asian economies, “almost all countries in the region are underinvesting in the sector.”

The combination of a stalled improvement curve and persistent underinvestment means that even the countries now rated low risk remain exposed to shocks that could reverse recent gains. For Tajikistan, where hundreds of thousands of the country’s roughly 10 million people still do not get enough to eat, the margin for error is considerably smaller.