Kazakhstan’s Economy Grows 4.5% in First Ten Months, With Manufacturing Surging but Oil Output Falling

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded 4.5% in the first ten months of 2026, slowing from 6.4% growth recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to preliminary gross domestic product figures released by the Ministry of National Economy, citing the Bureau of National Statistics.

The reading was a modest improvement on the 4.2% growth posted through January–September, suggesting a slight acceleration in October. The non-resource sector outpaced the headline figure, expanding an estimated 5.6% over the ten-month period, while oil production fell 8.3% year on year in the first nine months — a decline that weighed heavily on an economy where hydrocarbons have historically dominated export revenues.

Manufacturing leads the non-oil expansion

Manufacturing was among the strongest performers, with growth accelerating from 8.6% in the first nine months to 9.3% by the end of October. Within the sector, pharmaceutical production surged 50.9% year on year, machinery output rose 22.2%, and food production grew 13%. Overall industrial output was up 3.5%.

Construction expanded 13.1%, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors in the economy. Transportation and warehousing grew 7.5%, trade rose 6.2%, agriculture increased 5.2%, and communications services expanded 4.9%. Government figures show that construction, manufacturing, transportation, and trade together accounted for more than three-quarters of GDP growth in the first nine months. Fixed investment rose 7% over the same period, with private investment climbing 18.2%.

Inflation erodes household gains

Despite the headline growth figures, ordinary Kazakhstanis saw little improvement in living standards. Real income per person rose just 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.7% in the second quarter compared with the corresponding periods of 2025, leaving purchasing power essentially stagnant in inflation-adjusted terms.

Annual inflation eased marginally to 9.2% in October from 9.3% in September, according to the statistics bureau. A National Bank of Kazakhstan household survey conducted in October found that respondents’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months stood at 9%, while their median expectation for the coming 12 months was slightly higher at 9.8% — suggesting consumers anticipate price pressures will persist into 2027.

The gap between robust sectoral growth and near-flat real incomes points to an uneven recovery in which industrial and construction activity has expanded without translating into broad gains for households, a dynamic likely to inform monetary policy discussions at the National Bank in the months ahead.