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Natural gas extraction in Uzbekistan fell 16.4 percent in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, dropping to 27 billion cubic metres from 32.3 billion cubic metres, according to data from the National Statistics Committee analysed by Gazeta.uz. Measured against the January–September period of 2024, when output stood at 33.7 billion cubic metres, production has contracted by nearly 20 percent — or 6.7 billion cubic metres — in two years.
The decline is not uniform across months. After the year-on-year fall slowed to 7.9 percent in July, it accelerated sharply to 26.4 percent in August before easing slightly to 17.6 percent in September, when output reached approximately 2.8 billion cubic metres. Average daily extraction recovered from 83.9 million cubic metres in August to 93.3 million cubic metres in September — an 11.3 percent monthly improvement — but that figure remains far below the 113.3 million cubic metres per day recorded in September 2025.
Depleted Reserves at the Root of the Decline
The structural cause was spelled out publicly on 27 October by Nodirjon Muhiddinov, chief geologist of state energy company Uzbekneftegaz, at a press conference. More than 80 percent of reserves at several major fields have already been extracted, he said, and new exploration and drilling work is not yet replacing the volumes being lost from ageing deposits. At the start of 2026, daily output from operating fields was running at roughly 65 million cubic metres; baseline decline at those fields has since reached 12.6 million cubic metres per day. Repair work and new wells have recovered part of that loss, but approximately 5 million cubic metres per day remains uncompensated.
Uzbekneftegaz and its subsidiaries extracted roughly 17 billion cubic metres in the first nine months of the year and plan to reach 22.8 billion cubic metres by year-end — down from 25.2 billion cubic metres in 2025, a projected annual contraction of 9.5 percent. That revised target falls short of a presidential instruction issued in January requiring the company to produce at least 25.4 billion cubic metres over the full year. The gap also sits far below the targets set in the updated Uzbekistan–2030 strategy, which envisaged national gas output of 40.2 billion cubic metres in 2026, rising to 42.9 billion in 2027 and 48.5 billion by 2030.
Electricity Output Grows, Driven by Smaller Producers
Against the backdrop of falling gas extraction, electricity generation moved in the opposite direction. Total output for January–September reached 67.16 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.3 percent from 62.57 billion kilowatt-hours in the same period of 2025. September alone produced approximately 6.63 billion kilowatt-hours, a 7.8 percent year-on-year increase, though output fell 17.4 percent from August’s 8.02 billion kilowatt-hours as seasonal demand eased.
The composition of that generation is shifting markedly. Large enterprises — predominantly gas-fired thermal power stations — produced 44.4 billion kilowatt-hours over nine months, a 1.5 percent decline from 45.1 billion kilowatt-hours a year earlier. Smaller producers, a category that includes new solar and wind plants as well as other generators, produced 22.76 billion kilowatt-hours, up 30.3 percent from 17.46 billion kilowatt-hours. Their share of total generation rose from 27.9 percent to 33.9 percent in a single year. The statistics do not capture electricity generated by households and micro-enterprises for whom power production is not a primary activity.
Thermal energy output at large enterprises fell 19.3 percent over nine months, from 14.42 million gigacalories to 11.64 million gigacalories. In September alone the figure reached approximately 737,000 gigacalories, down 20.2 percent from 924,000 gigacalories in September 2025.
Fuel Refining: Diesel Surges, Petrol Slips
Petroleum refining data present a split picture. Diesel production for January–September totalled 979,000 tonnes, up 11.7 percent from 876,100 tonnes a year earlier. September output of 144,700 tonnes was roughly 60 percent higher than in September 2025, even as it dipped 4.1 percent from August’s 150,900 tonnes. The two months of August and September together accounted for nearly 30 percent of the year’s total diesel output.
Petrol production grew more modestly, reaching 913,200 tonnes over nine months — a 2.6 percent increase from 890,100 tonnes — but the pace of growth has slowed from 8.9 percent after seven months and 4.6 percent after eight. September output of approximately 101,900 tonnes recovered sharply from August’s 79,400 tonnes, itself a 32.5 percent drop from July’s 117,700 tonnes. Despite the rebound, September production remained below both the July peak and the year-earlier level.
Crude oil extraction edged down 1.6 percent to 482,200 tonnes from 490,100 tonnes, though the year-on-year gap has been narrowing month by month. September output of 57,200 tonnes was 2.9 percent above September 2025 — the second consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Gas condensate production fell 14.1 percent to 729,200 tonnes from 849,200 tonnes, though the rate of decline has moderated since mid-year. Coal extraction declined 6.9 percent to 5.4 million tonnes from 5.8 million tonnes, an improvement on the 9.5 percent shortfall recorded after seven months; the third quarter alone accounted for roughly 2.9 million tonnes, more than half the nine-month total.